Sunday, April 14, 2013

The End of Economic Growth

A few months ago, there was a debate about whether economic growth was coming to an end. Based on this graph it looks like economic growth ends around 2060:
The downtrend in growth rate is fairly linear, but of course it is just wild speculation to project it forward several decades. Trends can change direction. This is based on Congressional Budget Office estimates of potential GDP growth. Also, this is total GDP, not GDP per capita. It is much less controversial to argue that population growth will come to an end this century.

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